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Down and out, rolling into the weekend - a $MSTY update and a look ahead

Someone buy our favorite fund manager a coffee, this must have been a boring week to trade, thanks to the limp price action of our beloved 
@MicroStrategy
.

$MSTR opened the shortened trading week optimistically, just below MSTY’s large short position at the 400-410 levels.  Then Strategy never really threatened those levels again.  

In brief, the week’s trading action was muted.  We took some early profits on Wednesday, rolling 6000 contracts down and out to the June 6th expiry, earlier than usual for the fund.

On Thursday, our fund manager closed out the massive short position at the 410 strike - there just wasn’t enough time decay left worth holding into Friday’s close.  These trades cleared around 40,000 contracts, or a little under half of our remaining weeklies, allowing MSTY to pivot to the June 6th expiry.  There our manager opened new shorts, concentrated at the 390 level.

On Friday we bought back for pocket change the remaining 5/30 weeklies in the 380-390 range, and then built on our June 6th positions.  Strikes were more distributed than Thursday, with a large position placed at the 385 level.  

So wrapping up the week, we closed last week’s calls at near max profit, then collected around 47M in new premium.  Next week we’ll be watching that 380-390 level.

Reviewing the latest holdings report, assets continue to flow into MSTY at an impressive rate.  Despite the sideways and downward action in MSTR, the synthetic long has grown to 116k (paired) contracts. For reference, we began the month at around 95k combo contracts. 

There’s been a lot of discussion around the impact of MSTY on the underlying, particularly MSTR’s trading ranges and volatility.  I’m a huge fan of the work of 
@SpotGamma
   and encourage folks to follow the account.  Perhaps Brent might be willing to engage with our MSTY community on a Spaces one night, he has a lot of great insights into the options market.   

As these covered call funds continue to grow in popularity with investors, this will be something that the Yieldmax team will have to address -  and it’s a good discussion worth having.

Also still waiting to see when MSTY pivots away from relying solely on the synthetic long for exposure to MSTR.   We are fast approaching  the upward position limits set by the OCC.   My guess is we’ll see news very soon, and I’ll be curious to see how the fund is recomposed.

Finally, I suppose I can weigh in on the May distribution.  I guess I’ll be one of a few voices to predict a number <$1.   Of course I am happy to be wrong here, I just don’t see enough premium from our trades in May.  Don’t forget we also added 24M new shares outstanding this month, which expanded the denominator in the distribution formula.  I think we’re likely in the .85 range or so, but  I’ll be watching like everyone else for the announcement and will be very pleased to be wrong.

A link to my trading notes is provided below, enjoy the weekend everyone...

1. 市场背景 ($MSTR 表现)：

   • $MSTR (MicroStrategy) 价格走势疲软、交易无聊、横盘整理并向下波动。

   • 本周交易周期缩短（可能因节假日）。

2. MSTY 本周操作总结 (交易平淡但获利)：

   • 开盘状况： 略低于大量空头持仓区域 (400-410)。

   • 获利了结与展期： 周三提前获利了结，并将 6000 份合约展期到6月6日到期（比基金通常的到期日早）。

   • 周四操作： 在 410 价位平掉大量空头仓位（因时间不足），清算约 4 万份合约（占剩余周合约一半不到），转向 6 月 6 日到期合约，并在 390 价位建立新的空头仓位。

   • 周五操作： 在 380-390 区间买回剩余的 5/30 周合约，并在 6 月 6 日仓位上建仓（卖单分散，385 建仓较多）。

   • 本周成果： 以接近最高利润的价格平仓了看涨期权，并获得了约 4700 万美元的新增溢价（权利金收入）。

   • 下周关注：380-390 水平。

3. 持仓报告解读 (资金持续流入)：

   • 尽管 $MSTR 表现不佳，资金仍以“惊人速度”流入 MSTY。

   • 合成多头仓位（Synthetic Long Exposure） 已增至 11.6 万张（配对）合约（月初约为 9.5 万张）。这表明基金通过期权策略模拟的多头头寸规模显著扩大。

4. MSTY 对 $MSTR 市场的影响：

   • 文本提到市场上有关于 MSTY 这类基金对 $MSTR 的交易区间和波动性影响的讨论。

   • 作者推荐关注 @SpotGamma (Brent Kochuba)，认为他对期权市场有深刻见解，并建议邀请他在 Spaces 与 MSTY 社区交流。

   • 作者指出，随着备兑看涨基金（Covered Call Funds）（如 MSTY）越来越受欢迎，其市场影响是 Yieldmax 团队必须解决的问题。

5. 基金面临的限制与潜在变化：

   • MSTY 目前主要依赖对 $MSTR 的合成多头仓位。

   • 该基金正快速接近美国期权清算公司 (OCC) 设定的持仓上限。

   • 作者预计很快会看到有关基金重组的消息，并对此表示好奇。这意味着基金可能因触及上限而需要调整策略（例如，使用其他工具、分散标的或改变结构）。

6. 对 5 月份分红的预测：

   • 作者预测 5 月份的分红（分配）低于 1 美元，并自称可能是少数这么预测的人。

   • 预测理由：

     • 认为 5 月份交易获得的溢价（权利金）不够多。

     • 基金本月新增了 2400 万股流通股，扩大了分红公式的分母，会稀释每股分红金额。

   • 具体预测值： 作者个人估计分配率可能在 $0.85 左右。

   • 态度： 表示会关注公告，并非常乐意看到自己预测错误（即分红高于预期）。

总结关键点：

• 本周操作： 平淡但成功获利了结并展期，获得显著权利金收入（4700万），将焦点转向6月6日到期合约，在380-390区域建立新空头仓位。

• 资金流向： 资金持续强劲流入MSTY，推动其合成$MSTR多头仓位大幅增加至11.6万合约。

• 市场影响： 讨论MSTY等备兑看涨基金对标的($MSTR)波动性和价格的影响，推荐关注期权专家@SpotGamma。

• 迫在眉睫的限制： MSTY即将触及OCC持仓上限，预计需要重组策略（可能很快公布消息）。

• 分红预测： 作者预测5月分红低于$1（约$0.85），主要理由是权利金收入不足和份额大幅增加稀释效应，但希望自己预测错误。